Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

How does mental health status relate to accessibility and remoteness?

Objective: To determine whether mental illness is associated with accessibility and remoteness. Design: A cross-sectional, population-based, computer-assisted telephone interview survey, stratified by Accessibility and Remoteness Index of Australia (ARIA) categories. Setting: Secondary analysis of data collected from 2545 South Australian adults in October and November 2000. Outcome measures: Psychological distress and depression as determined by the Kessler 10 Psychological Distress Scale, the SF-12 measure of health status, and self-reported mental illness diagnosed by a doctor in the previous 12 months. Results: Overall, mental illness prevalence estimates were similar using the three measures of psychological distress (10.5%), clinical depression (12.9%) and self-reported mental health problem (12.7%). For each measure, there was no statistically significant variation in prevalence across ARIA categories, except for a lower than expected prevalence of depression (7.7%) in the accessible category. There was no trend suggesting higher levels of mental illness among residents of rural and remote regions. Conclusions: The prevalence rates of psychological distress, depression and self-reported mental illness are high. However, we found no evidence that the prevalence of these conditions varies substantially across ARIA categories in South Australia. This finding may challenge existing stereotypes about higher levels of mental illness outside metropolitan Australia.

Effects of reduction in heroin supply on injecting drug use: analysis of data from needle and syringe programmes

n early 2001 there was a dramatic decline in the availability of heroin in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, where previously heroin had been readily available at a low price and high purity.1 The decline was confirmed by Australia's strategic early warning system, which revealed a reduction in heroin supply across Australia and a considerable increase in price,2 particularly from January to April 2001. This "heroin shortage" provided a natural experiment in which to examine the effect of substantial changes in price and availability on injecting drug use and its associated harms in Australia's largest heroin market,2 a setting in which harm reduction strategies were widely used. Publicly funded needle and syringe programmes were introduced to Australia in 1987, and methadone maintenance programmes, which were established in the 1970s, were significantly expanded in 1985 and again in 1999.

Cannabis use and psychotic disorders: an update

This paper evaluates three hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and psychosis in the light of recent evidence from prospective epidemiological studies. These are that: ( 1) cannabis use causes a psychotic disorder that would not have occurred in the absence of cannabis use; ( 2) that cannabis use may precipitate schizophrenia or exacerbate its symptoms; and ( 3) that cannabis use may exacerbate the symptoms of psychosis. There is limited support for the first hypothesis. As a consequence of recent prospective studies, there is now stronger support for the second hypothesis. Four recent prospective studies in three countries have found relationships between the frequency with which cannabis had been used and the risk of receiving a diagnosis of schizophrenia or of reporting psychotic symptoms. These relationships are stronger in people with a history of psychotic symptoms and they have persisted after adjustment for potentially confounding variables. The absence of any change in the incidence of schizophrenia during the three decades in which cannabis use in Australia has increased makes it unlikely that cannabis use can produce psychoses that would not have occurred in its absence. It seems more likely that cannabis use can precipitate schizophrenia in vulnerable individuals. There is also reasonable evidence for the third hypothesis that cannabis use exacerbates psychosis.

Community perceptions of adequate levels and reasons for skin protection

In this study the authors addressed whether or not community members use relevant risk factors to determine an appropriate level of skin protection behavior in the prevention of skin cancer. The authors conducted a postal survey with a community sample of 3,600 Queensland residents that they randomly selected from the Commonwealth electoral roll. The predictors of perceptions of doing enough skin protection included intrapersonal, social, and attitudinal influences. People protected themselves from the sun primarily out of a desire for future good health and on other occasions did not protect themselves from the sun because they were not out there long enough to get burnt. The predictors of perceptions of doing enough skin protection indicated that participants were aware of relevant risk factors. The main reasons that people protect themselves from the sun suggest that they are acting on many health promotion messages. However, skin cancer prevention programs need to move beyond increasing awareness and knowledge of the disease to providing a supportive environment and enhancing individual skills. Health promotion campaigns could reinforce appropriate risk assessment and shape an individual's decision about how much sun protection is needed.

The impact of changes to heroin supply on blood-borne virus notifications and injecting related harms in New South Wales, Australia

Background: In early 2001 Australia experienced a sudden and unexpected disruption to heroin availability, know as the 'heroin shortage'. This 'shortage has been linked to a decrease in needle and syringe output and therefore possibly a reduction in injecting drug use. We aimed to examine changes, if any, in blood-borne viral infections and presentations for injecting related problems related to injecting drug use following the reduction heroin availability in Australia, in the context of widespread harm reduction measures. Methods: Time series analysis of State level databases on HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C notifications and hospital and emergency department data. Examination of changes in HIV, hepatitis B, hepatitis C notifications and hospital and emergency department admissions for injection-related problems following the onset of the heroin shortage; non-parametric curve-fitting of number of hepatitis C notifications among those aged 15 - 19 years. Results: There were no changes observed in hospital visits for injection-related problems. There was no change related to the onset heroin shortage in the number of hepatitis C notifications among persons aged 15 - 19 years, but HCV notifications have subsequently decreased in this group. No change occurred in HIV and hepatitis B notifications. Conclusion: A marked reduction in heroin supply resulted in no increase in injection-related harm at the community level. However, a delayed decrease in HCV notifications among young people may be related. These changes occurred in a setting with widespread, publicly funded harm reduction initiatives.

The impact of a reduction in drug supply on demand for and compliance with treatment for drug dependence

Background: In early 2001, Australia experienced a sudden, dramatic and;sustained decrease in heroin availability that was accompanied by sharp increases in price and decreases in street level purity-the so-called heroin shortage. These unprecedented changes occurred in a context of widespread treatment availability, which made it possible for the first time to examine the impact of a sharp reduction in heroin supply in New South Wales (NSW) on entry to and adherence with treatment for heroin dependence. Given the evidence of drug substitution by some users. the current paper also examines the effects of the shortage on entry to treatment for other forms of drug dependence. Methods: Interrupted time-series analysis of the number of persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy and other treatment modalities in NSW for heroin dependence and for the treatment for other types of drug dependence. Findings: The heroin shortage was associated with a reduction in the number of younger persons entering opioid pharmacotherapy. There was a dramatic decrease in the number of persons entering heroin withdrawal or assessment only treatment episodes. There appear to have been small improvements in adherence to and retention in heroin treatment after the reduction in heroin supply. Relatively small increases were observed in numbers being treated for cocaine dependence. Conclusions: In the context of good treatment provision, a reduction in heroin supply appeared to produce modest improvements in intermediate outcomes. Supply and demand reduction measures, when both are implemented successfully, may be complementary. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is cannabis a gateway drug? Testing hypotheses about the relationship between cannabis use and the use of other illicit drugs

We outline and evaluate competing explanations of three relationships that have consistently been found between cannabis use and the use of other illicit drugs, namely, ( 1) that cannabis use typically precedes the use of other illicit drugs; and that ( 2) the earlier cannabis is used, and ( 3) the more regularly it is used, the more likely a young person is to use other illicit drugs. We consider three major competing explanations of these patterns: ( 1) that the relationship is due to the fact that there is a shared illicit market for cannabis and other drugs which makes it more likely that other illicit drugs will be used if cannabis is used; ( 2) that they are explained by the characteristics of those who use cannabis; and ( 3) that they reflect a causal relationship in which the pharmacological effects of cannabis on brain function increase the likelihood of using other illicit drugs. These explanations are evaluated in the light of evidence from longitudinal epidemiological studies, simulation studies, discordant twin studies and animal studies. The available evidence indicates that the association reflects in part but is not wholly explained by: ( 1) the selective recruitment to heavy cannabis use of persons with pre-existing traits ( that may be in part genetic) that predispose to the use of a variety of different drugs; ( 2) the affiliation of cannabis users with drug using peers in settings that provide more opportunities to use other illicit drugs at an earlier age; ( 3) supported by socialisation into an illicit drug subculture with favourable attitudes towards the use of other illicit drugs. Animal studies have raised the possibility that regular cannabis use may have pharmacological effects on brain function that increase the likelihood of using other drugs. We conclude with suggestions for the type of research studies that will enable a decision to be made about the relative contributions that social context, individual characteristics, and drug effects make to the relationship between cannabis use and the use of other drugs.

Is cannabis use a contributory cause of psychosis?

Objective: To assess whether cannabis use in adolescence and young adulthood is a contributory cause of schizophreniform psychosis in that it may precipitate psychosis in vulnerable individuals. Method: We reviewed longitudinal studies of adolescents and young adults that examined the relations between self-reported cannabis use and the risk of diagnosis with a psychosis or of reporting psychotic symptoms. We also reviewed studies that controlled for potential confounders, such as other forms of drug use and personal characteristics that predict an increased risk of psychosis. We assessed evidence for the biological plausibility of a contributory causal relation. Results: Evidence from 6 longitudinal studies in 5 countries shows that regular cannabis use predicts an increased risk of a schizophrenia diagnosis or of reporting symptoms of psychosis. These relations persisted after controlling for confounding variables, such as personal characteristics and other drug use. The relation did not seem to be a result of cannabis use to self-medicate symptoms of psychosis. A contributory causal relation is biologically plausible because psychotic disorders involve disturbances in the dopamine neurotransmitter systems with which the cannabinoid system interacts, as demonstrated by animal studies and one human provocation study. Conclusion: It is most plausible that cannabis use precipitates schizophrenia in individuals who are vulnerable because of a personal or family history of schizophrenia.

Long-term increase in sunscreen use in an Australian community after a skin cancer prevention trial

Background. Given the public health burden of skin cancer in white populations, an increase in sun protective behavior is needed. In a highrisk community, we assessed long-term Sunscreen use among people who had participated in a randomized trial of daily Sunscreen application for prevention of skin cancer. Methods. In 1992, 1621 residents of the subtropical Australian township of Nambour were randomly allocated to either daily or discretionary sunscreen use until 1996. From 1997 to 2002, we monitored by questionnaires their ongoing sunscreen use. Results. People who had never or irregularly used sunscreen when in summer sun before the trial were more likely (P < 0.0001) to be sustaining regular application especially to their face (20% vs. 11%) and forearms (14% vs. 5%) if they had been allocated to daily, not discretionary, use of sunscreen for 5 years. Conclusions. Regular voluntary sunscreen use for skin cancer prevention can be sustained by sun-sensitive people in the long term. Habit formation appears to be an important goal for sun protection programs among those living, or on vacation, in sunny places. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.